We’re now getting data to back up what we’ve seen anecdotally since rates perked up this Spring. More Sellers now realize prices won’t continue their dramatic rise and are placing their homes on the market.
Perhaps a return to a more stable “normal”? -Derek
TRULIA REPORTS ASKING HOME PRICE SLOWDOWN AMID RISING MORTGAGE RATES, EXPANDING INVENTORY, AND DECLINING INVESTOR INTEREST
Asking Home Prices Cool Most in Hottest Housing Markets: Las Vegas, Oakland, and San Francisco
SAN FRANCISCO, August 6, 2013 – Trulia, Inc. (NYSE: TRLA), a leading online marketplace for home buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals, today released the latest findings from the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor. These indices are the earliest leading indicators available of trends in home prices and rents. Based on the for-sale homes and rentals listed on Trulia, these monitors take into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices and rents for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through July 31, 2013.
Asking Home Prices Fall 0.3 Percent Month-Over-Month
Asking home prices are now starting to lose steam as mortgage rates rise, inventory expands, and investor demand declines. Nationally, asking prices dropped 0.3 percent in July – the first month-over-month (M-o-M) decline since November 2012. Seasonally adjusted, prices rose 3.3 percent quarter-over quarter (Q-o-Q), down from a peak of 4.2 percent in April. Year-over-year (Y-o-Y), prices are up 11 percent nationally; however, this change is an average over the past 12 months and is therefore slower to show changes than monthly and quarterly numbers.
|
July 2013 Trulia Price Monitor Summary |
|||
|
% change in asking prices |
# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases |
% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures |
|
| Month-over-month, seasonally adjusted |
-0.3%* |
Not reported |
0.6%* |
| Quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted |
3.3% |
97 |
3.9% |
| Year-over-year |
11.0% |
98 |
11.5% |
| *M-o-M change is July versus June. Q-o-Q and Y-o-Y changes are three-month averages. | |||
Asking Home Prices Now Slowing Down in the West
In 64 out of 100 U.S. metros, the quarterly asking home price gain was lower than in the previous quarter. This slowdown was most apparent in the West Coast where prices have rebounded strongly already. Among housing markets where asking prices rose sharply Y-o-Y, price gains dipped the most Q-o-Q in Las Vegas, Oakland, and San Francisco. Other California metros, including Sacramento, Ventura County, San Jose, and Fresno, saw Q-o-Q gains drop by at least two percentage points between April and July. Meanwhile, many metros in the South and Midwest are seeing price gains accelerate, such as Atlanta (3.2 percentage points higher in July versus April) and Detroit (3.7 percentage points).
|
Hot Housing Markets Where Prices are Slowing Most |
|||||
| # | U.S. Metro |
Y-o-Y % change, July 2013 |
Q-o-Q % change, July 2013 |
Q-o-Q % change, April 2013 |
Price slowdown = Difference in Q-o-Q % change, July minus April |
| 1 | Las Vegas, NV |
32.9% |
7.5% |
12.7% |
-5.2% |
| 2 | Oakland, CA |
31.0% |
7.2% |
10.8% |
-3.6% |
| 3 | San Francisco, CA |
17.2% |
3.0% |
6.5% |
-3.5% |
| 4 | Sacramento, CA |
33.7% |
6.8% |
10.2% |
-3.3% |
| 5 | Portland, OR-WA |
18.1% |
3.6% |
6.9% |
-3.3% |
| 6 | Ventura County, CA |
18.6% |
5.3% |
8.2% |
-2.9% |
| 7 | Grand Rapids, MI |
18.2% |
5.1% |
7.6% |
-2.6% |
| 8 | San Jose, CA |
20.9% |
4.5% |
6.9% |
-2.4% |
| 9 | Fresno, CA |
19.9% |
5.2% |
7.4% |
-2.2% |
| 10 | Salt Lake City, UT |
17.4% |
3.3% |
4.6% |
-1.3% |
| 11 | Bakersfield, CA |
24.2% |
5.4% |
6.6% |
-1.2% |
| 12 | Orange County, CA |
23.3% |
5.9% |
7.0% |
-1.1% |
| 13 | Los Angeles, CA |
20.9% |
5.6% |
6.7% |
-1.1% |
| Table shows metros with the biggest decline in Q-o-Q asking prices between April and July, among metros with large Y-o-Y increases. The final column equals the difference between the third and second data columns, but the numbers might not appear to add up due to rounding. | |||||
Asking Home Prices Outpace Rents in All Major Rental Markets
Rents rose 3.9 percent year-over-year nationally, which was a big increase compared with inflation or income growth, but small compared with asking home price gains. Even as asking home prices slow down, July was the first time that prices outpaced rents in the 25 largest rental markets since Trulia started tracking rent trends in March 2011.
|
Housing Markets Where Rents Rose Most |
|||
| # | U.S. Metro |
Y-o-Y % change inrents |
Y-o-Y % change inhome prices |
| 1 | Seattle, WA |
11.1% |
16.0% |
| 2 | Houston, TX |
8.5% |
10.2% |
| 3 | San Francisco, CA |
8.1% |
17.2% |
| 4 | Portland, OR-WA |
7.7% |
18.1% |
| 5 | Denver, CO |
7.1% |
11.7% |
| Note: Among 25 largest rental markets | |||
PRE-APPROVED QUOTES:
- “If you were worried about a housing bubble, July’s asking-price slowdown will probably be the best news you’ve heard this year,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “The asking home price slowdown in July could be the start of the return to normal price gains. The blazing fast price increases we’ve seen in recent months could not last, especially with rising mortgage rates, expanding inventory, and declining investor interest.”
- “The biggest price slowdowns have come to some of the hottest local markets,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “California and Nevada remain the Wild West for asking home prices, with some of the sharpest drops during the bust, strongest rebounds over the past year, and now biggest slowdowns in the past quarter. In the rest of the country, the ride is less wild, but is on the same track: price gains have cooled in almost two-thirds of the largest metros.”
MULTIMEDIA
- To read the full report, see here.
- To see a graph of price changes from July 2012 to July 2013, see here.
- To download a list of the price and rent changes for the largest metros, see here.
METHODOLOGY
To view the full methodology and 2013 release schedule, see here. The next release of the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor will be Thursday, September 5 at 10 AM ET.
ABOUT TRULIA, INC.
Trulia (NYSE: TRLA) gives home buyers, sellers, owners, and renters the inside scoop on properties, places, and real estate professionals. Trulia has unique info on the areas people want to live that can’t be found anywhere else: users can learn about agents, neighborhoods, schools, crime, commute times, and even ask the local community questions. Real estate professionals use Trulia to connect with millions of transaction-ready buyers and sellers each month via our hyperlocal advertising services, social recommendations, and top-rated mobile real estate apps. Trulia is headquartered in downtown San Francisco. Trulia is a registered trademark of Trulia, Inc.