From the San Francisco Business Time by Blanca Torres

Last week, Gabriel Metcalf, executive director of urban think tank SPUR, reflected on a common Bay Area trend: People are leaving San Francisco because it’s too crowded, too expensive and too competitive to find housing.

In a widely circulated blog titled The San Francisco Exodus, that he posted in Atlantic Cities, Metcalf opens by stating, “My friends keep moving to Oakland.” Depending on who’s reading, that can be a cause for celebration or despair.

I’ll go with the celebration — if Oakland actually wakes up and seizes the windfall being dropped in its lap.

After years of writing about Oakland development and real estate, I’ve heard many times about how Oakland is in the shadow of San Francisco, how it is centrally located and has better weather, how it is a city with so much potential and how with the right investors or projects or infusion of money, it could be so great. Key words: could be.

Well, Oakland, sounds like your time has come. San Francisco’s loss can be your gain — a huge gain, if you capture those San Francisco refugees before another East Bay city does.

I circled back with Metcalf on how to look at the San Francisco exodus as not a cause for a San Francisco pity party, but a golden opportunity for Oakland.

Here’s what he told me:

What can Oakland do to capitalize on the San Francisco exodus?

Oakland is in a great position right now. It’s the center of all kinds of interesting movements, and all kinds of creative people live there — artists and makers, inventors and musicians. Not to mention the restaurants and bars. Oakland is an amazing, incredible city.

The only thing holding Oakland back is crime. The strategies to get a handle on this include everything from policing to workforce training, and it’s something that smart people in Oakland are very much focused on.

Prices are already going up in Oakland, which is not necessarily a good thing from the perspective of housing affordability, but it is an indicator of a lot of people being interested in living there and in that sense is a nice validation of what a great city Oakland is. On the other hand, I don’t think you’re going to see a lot of employment growth until the perception of public safety is different.

In other words, potential residents and potential employers are evaluating Oakland in two very different ways.

What about the fact that many San Franciscans end up moving to East Bay neighborhoods that already have good schools and transit? Are they pushing or pricing out existing residents?

Yes, neighborhoods near BART are already gentrifying and this is a huge issue. Oakland needs more investment both to create economic opportunity for its residents and to increase funding for public services. But on the other hand, that investment can end up driving out existing residents. There is no easy answer, and this is something cities all across the country wrestle with.

Personally, I think Oakland is the perfect place to invent a new approach to transit-oriented development that combines high-density buildings, assistance for small businesses, focused workforce training, affordable housing and public realm improvements. Right now, there is virtually no unsubsidized development happening in Oakland, so it’s clear that all the so-called “public benefits” cannot be funded by fees on new development. But there are other strategies the city can use.

What other East Bay cities do you think can benefit from the San Francisco exodus?

Lots of people move to Oakland as their first choice! It’s not all about being priced out of San Francisco. On the other hand, we share one regional economy and one regional labor market, so the cities of the Bay Area are very much tied together. BART has been absolutely essential to the region’s development, so you see the tightest relationship between San Francisco and cities with good BART connections, such as Oakland, Berkeley and San Leandro.

via San Francisco exodus is Oakland’s golden opportunity – San Francisco Business Times.